Crude oil exports from the Gulf states soared to a two-year high of 17.61mn b/d in June, counter to speculation that the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict might disrupt exports (MEES, 20 June). This was the highest monthly figure since June 2023, according to Kpler; the last month before Saudi Arabia implemented its 1mn b/d ‘lollipop’ cuts which ultimately laid the foundations for the 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by eight Opec+ producers (MEES, 9 June 2023).
The Group of Eight began tapering those cuts in April, and has accelerated the process since May; a total of 959,000 b/d of the cuts have been unwound as of June. The majority of this increment came from the Middle East, with the region accounting for 724,000 b/d of the total. However, the actual supply increase was expected to be much less than this paper increase, as countries which have previously overproduced were supposed to compensate for past overproduction. For exports, the impact was expected to be more muted still, as the production increases coincide with steep seasonal increases in crude oil burn in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait (MEES, 9 May). (CONTINUED - 1036 WORDS)
