Will Increased Saudi Oil Production Translate Into Higher Summer Exports?

9 May 2025 Issue: 68 / 19 By: Jamie Ingram

The accelerated unwinding of Opec+ voluntary production cuts means Saudi Arabia’s June production could be as much as 389,000 b/d more than in Q1. But with oil burn still running high, exports will decline in summer unless there are further large quota boosts in the coming months.

The decision to accelerate the tapering of Opec+ production cuts in May and June means that Saudi production will be considerably higher than initially expected over summer. Saudi Arabia’s Opec+ allocation rises to 9.367mn b/d next month, up from 9.145mn b/d under the roadmap agreed on in December (MEES, 6 December 2024), and up a substantial 389,000 b/d from the beginning of the year.

With another accelerated tapering for July a very real possibility when the Opec+ ‘Group of Eight’ ministers meet on 1 June, Saudi output could ramp up further through summer. Nevertheless, a significant increase in Saudi crude exports to global markets in the coming months is unlikely given the kingdom’s own domestic demand dynamics. Indeed, crude exports could still drop over summer even if there is another acceleration in July. (CONTINUED - 933 WORDS)