Lebanon: New Government, Negative Outlook?
08 Mar, 2019
Geopolitical Risk
Lebanon Power Overhaul Gathers Pace
15 Mar 2019
Under new leadership, Lebanon’s energy ministry is drafting a total re-think of its horrific power sector. With $11.5bn in aid pledges, behemoths GE and Siemens eye deals under the country’s power masterplan. But political discord remains a threat.
After a contentious eight-month government formation that triggered multiple downgrades to the country’s economic outlook (MEES, 8 March), Lebanon has finally reached a ‘political consensus’ and is pushing forward to reassure international investors (MEES, 1 February). Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s confidence-building efforts are made doubly important by the fact that Lebanon will only receive the $11.5bn pledged at last year’s CEDRE donors’ conference in Paris if he can convince the international community that the new government is taking its renewed reform efforts seriously (MEES, 13 April 2018).
By any measure, these pledges (see table 1) are crucial to boosting growth from the average 1.6% annual GDP growth since...
Lebanon’s ‘Best Case Scenario’*