Heightened US-Iran tensions and the significant American military buildup in the Gulf have revived market concerns over the security of oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. But as last year’s 12-day Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities showed, the risk of Tehran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remains low unless it perceives an existential threat.
Washington has dialed down calls for regime change since Iran crushed protests earlier in January. But with the Islamic Republic at its weakest point in decades amid severe economic strain, growing domestic dissent and the erosion of its regional proxy groups the risk is that miscalculation could trigger a wider escalation (MEES, 16 January). (CONTINUED - 957 WORDS)
