Iranian Regime Weakening Even As Immediate US Threat Eases

16 Jan 2026 Issue: 69 / 3 By: Yesar Al-Maleki

President Trump’s U-turn on attacking Iran gives the Iranian regime another chance at putting its domestic affairs in order, but a major overhaul is required if it is to cling on to power. The latest protests have put ‘regime transformation’ in focus. There are few pathways left for Iran’s clerical establishment to ensure its survival other than to effect a leadership transition from within or to strike a deal with the US.

Iran’s Islamic regime is facing an existential crisis. What began with merchants in Tehran’s famed Bazaar closing their shops at the end of last year to protest worsening economic conditions (MEES, 2 January), has escalated into the most serious nationwide demonstrations since at least the contested presidential election of 2009 (MEES, 22 June 2009).

The unrest is seen as the most serious challenge to the Islamic regime since the overthrow of the Shah in 1979. Humiliated and weakened after its 12-day conflict with Israel seven months ago (MEES, 27 June 2025) and its vaunted network of regional proxies largely dismantled, the past weeks have clearly laid bare the fragility of its clerical leadership. (CONTINUED - 3169 WORDS)