Lebanon & Syria: A Tale Of Two Recoveries

2 Jan 2026 Issue: 69 / 1

The collapse of Syria’s Assad regime, Hezbollah’s decapitation and the election of a pro-Western government put Lebanon on track for a long-overdue economic recovery. But nearly one year on, Syria is in the ascendent and Lebanon’s future is as precarious as ever.

One year ago if asked which country, Lebanon or Syria, was better set for a major economic turnaround in 2025, most observers would likely have said the former. The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia had been severely weakened by its conflict with Israel, and a coalition was slowly forming to nominate a more neutral (and pro-western) president. This duly occurred in January 2025 with the election of Joseph Aoun and the formation of a technocratic cabinet (MEES, 17 January 2025).

Syria, on the other hand, looked an utter shambles. Sunni anti-regime forces under Ahmed al-Jolani (later to become President al-Sharaa) were successfully marching south through Syria taking key cities like Aleppo and Homs on their way to ousting Bashar al-Assad on 8 December and bringing to an end 53 years of Assad rule and nearly 15 years of devastating civil war (MEES, 13 December 2024). (CONTINUED - 1212 WORDS)