The topic of Iran dominated discussions during the International Energy Week annual industry gathering in London this week. The question of whether or not the US will launch military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks is the great unknown, and the answer will have profound implications for oil markets.

Military conflict in the Gulf would risk disrupting the flow of around 14.5mn b/d of crude and condensate and 3.8mn b/d of refined products through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 80mn t/y of LNG is also exported through the chokepoint from Qatar (77mn t/y capacity) and Abu Dhabi (6mn t/y capacity). (CONTINUED - 978 WORDS)