When the Opec+ ‘Group of Eight’ met on 3 April and decided to accelerate the easing of voluntary production cuts in May the news blindsided the market, which had been expecting the group to stick to its pre-agreed timetable (MEES, 4 April). Now, with ministers preparing to discuss production levels for June, the market view is crystalizing around another expected acceleration. The meeting had been planned for 5 May, but was brought forward to 3 May just before MEES went to press.
According to the roadmap agreed on in December, production limits are to be adjusted upwards by around 138,000 b/d each month (MEES, 6 December 2024). Last month’s decision was for a 411,000 b/d increase for May, and another such acceleration is widely expected for June. Indeed, the potential for an increase above 411,000 b/d for June shouldn’t be ignored, with all options currently on the table. Going into the talks, traders already expect a substantial increase in June from the UAE, which is keen to monetize its capacity expansion investments. (CONTINUED - 406 WORDS)
