After nearly four months of conflict and a historic energy supply shock that threatened a global recession, the US and Iran have agreed to end hostilities. The memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on 17 June, is not a peace deal but a framework agreement that extends a fragile ceasefire and sets the stage for 60-day (extendable) talks to reach a final deal on Iran’s nuclear program and other areas of disagreement.

The MoU enables the gradual resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (MEES, 19 June), but the risk of a return to conflict remains if talks collapse. Although the general perception is that US President Donald Trump wants to put the war behind him, it is far from certain that the two sides can bridge the fundamental gaps that remain between their positions. (CONTINUED - 1931 WORDS)