Iraq is again pushing oil exports and production back up towards record highs following an atypical period of compliance with its Opec obligations. Federal exports jumped 110,000 b/d to a three-month high of 3.57mn b/d in May, although they remain well off the pace from December’s record 3.73mn b/d.
This increase in volumes was more than enough to offset a slight dip in the price of Iraqi crude to $66.68/B, and indeed revenues surged to a seven-month high of $7.38bn for May. That was well in excess of December’s $6.10bn, when Iraq had the misfortune of combining record exports with 16-month low prices.
Year-to-date earnings now total $33.84bn, up marginally against $33.02bn for the first five months of 2018. However, that will likely have reversed at the six-month mark given the recent price slumps.
With exports recovering, MEES estimates that...