Iran Exports: Korea Restart Amid French Euro-Hope
15 Feb, 2019
OPEC & Global Markets
Heavy Outages Weigh On Seemingly Well-Supplied Market
15 Feb 2019
The IEA’s warning of a tightening market for heavier, sour crudes highlights dynamics lurking behind the surface of a market seemingly still oversupplied. This dynamic is problematic for refiners, but lessens the losses Gulf Opec states are making through production cuts.
Cuts made by the Opec+ cohort are of predominately sour grades, while the US continues to ramp outout of light, sweet volumes (MEES, 15 February). The IEA’s latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) for February rings an alarm of an increasingly tight market for heavier sour crudes.
If Opec pumps at January levels of 30.81mn b/d for the rest of the year, the OMR’s numbers indicate global inventories will rise by 55mn barrels. Opec’s monthly report implies a stockbuild of 79mn barrels, with mid-year drawdowns (see chart). Both imply supply and demand nearing balance. Indeed, if Opec output falls further to...
After H2 2018 Supply Glut, Market Returns To Balance (Implied Stock Builds, Mn Bbl)