Geopolitical Risk

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• Egypt’s Suez Canal saw revenue hit $1.351bn in 1Q 2018, the highest first quarter figure on record, though down...

Undeterred by the ongoing conflict, OMV has restarted production at its Habban field in the Shabwa basin in the center...

Eni is pressing on with investment in Libya. But most is offshore and in wet gas fields. At key onshore oil fields an output slump is already underway.

Southern exports have been maxed out at 3.46mn b/d over the last six months, and the stress is taking its toll on aging infrastructure. The 12 May elections are set to delay efforts to redress the government’s dependency on the Basra chokepoint.

Lebanon has secured grants and loans worth $11.5bn for redeveloping its disheveled infrastructure. But a lack of financing is far from the republic’s biggest concern.

Upstream return looks optimistic given lack of access to export outlets.

With Shell looking to offload its operating stake in the Gaza Marine field, development offshore Gaza is unlikely anytime soon. Security risks are a constant reality, leaving hopes for 24/7 electricity dead at sea.

US threats are stymying Iranian efforts to attract upstream investment. But European and Asian buying of Iranian crude will likely be unaffected.