Geopolitical Risk

Saudi and Iraqi hopes of ramping up crude exports to China may be hit by a US-China trade truce which is set to see the recent halt in shipments reversed.

Qatar’s decision to quit has seismic ramifications for Opec’s future. The move shatters claims the group can overcome the often-fractious politics between its members.

Amman is seeing results from its push toward renewables and gas. But the country’s energy future remains tied to developments abroad—particularly Israel’s Leviathan. Direct Israel-to-Jordan gas sales are contentious, whilst Israel-to-Egypt plans could scupper Jordan's ambition to tap Egypt's gas.

Pipeline constraints in Israel’s natural gas network have the partners in a deal to sell Israeli gas to Egypt scrambling for a solution. MEES learns further pipeline issues lie in wait for them if that initial hurdle is eventually overcome.

Egyptian state oil firm EGPC and the Israel Electricity Company (IEC) have agreed to settle a long-running dispute over...

Total is committed to its strategy of picking up low-cost Mena barrels despite its Iran gambit backfiring. Regional liquids output is at record levels.

Saudi Arabia has been reining in refinery runs in a bid to maximize crude exports. But with Brent down $20/B since the start of October a reversal is in the works.

Libya is set to net $25.4bn in 2018 on the back of higher oil prices. Its energy sector is in need of a cash injection to maintain output, but this is far from guaranteed.

Eni’s 21.5tcf Zohr gas field is on course to hit 2.25bn cfd output by the year, up from the...

Recent falls in oil prices suggest expectations that falls in Iran exports will be less than previously imagined. This may prove optimistic.

Erbil has added 300,000 b/d capacity to its crude export pipeline, offering Baghdad access to a 1mn b/d pipeline for shut-in Kirkuk volumes.

Iran’s oil exports fell over 1mn b/d from 2017 levels even prior to this week’s re-imposition of US sanctions. Few governments appear willing to risk Trump’s ire.