The US-Iran conflict has descended into the heaviest fighting in weeks, with each side carrying out a series of strikes and counter-strikes in a bid to gain leverage. Despite the breakdown of the MoU less than a month after its 17 June signing, and US President Donald Trump again threatening to attack Iranian power plants, the consensus view remains that neither party wants a major escalation. Yet the risk of escalation rises with each attack.
As has been apparent since the first few weeks of the conflict, neither side has been able to gain a definitive edge over the other. Neither has so far shown a willingness to make the concessions needed to secure a negotiated settlement. The risk is that this may result in a cycle of uneasy ceasefires and periodic outbreaks of fighting, with the Gulf states and the Strait of Hormuz caught in the middle. (CONTINUED - 1118 WORDS)
