World’s Oil Buffers Are Dangerously Thin

9 Oct 2026 Issue: 69 / 41 By: Jamie Ingram

More oil is being exported from the Middle East than at any time since the start of the conflict, but the security situation remains perilous and the global energy market’s buffers have been eroded. The industry has shown remarkable resilience, but industry executives warned this week that the system is increasingly distressed.

Global oil markets are caught between two competing narratives. On the one hand, crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded in recent months and are closing in on pre-conflict levels. On the other hand, the world has been burning through its oil stockpiles, the Middle East conflict shows no sign of abating and the longer it persists, the higher the risk of a serious market dislocation.

This has manifested in a sharp divergence between futures and physical prices once again. Where ICE Brent futures settled at $104.28 on 8 October, General Index assessed Dated Brent significantly higher at $135.66/B. Futures markets are being influenced more by headlines of increased Middle East exports, while physical markets are pricing the erosion of the market’s buffers. (CONTINUED - 1069 WORDS)