Saudi Arabia’s crude oil and refined products exports jumped by more than 400,000 b/d in October to a 30-month high of 8.359mn b/d as the impact of production increases was magnified by falling domestic demand. This offset a sharp monthly fall in oil prices, and Saudi oil export revenues rose to a nine-month high of $18.7bn for the month.
For Saudi Arabia, the strategy of accelerating the unwinding of voluntary Opec+ production cuts in 2025 has paid off. The production increases are being paused for Q1 when global demand is seasonally weak, but could resume again from April (MEES, 2 January). This approach has enabled a partial reclamation of market share, and without causing a substantial revenue decline. Should markets begin to tighten in the second half of 2026, Saudi Arabia will be well positioned to capitalize on its higher production base, although if they weaken further then a reappraisal of the strategy may be required. (CONTINUED - 779 WORDS)