IEA Oil Decline Study Puts Mideast, Russia at Center of Future Supply

19 Sep 2025 Issue: 68 / 38 By: Kate Dourian

Steeper global oil and gas field decline rates, longer new project lead times and increased reliance on unconventional resources are redefining the oil and gas supply landscape, the IEA says in a new report. Without upstream investments in new capacity, oil production will become increasingly concentrated in Russia and a small number of countries in the Middle East, where supergiant fields decline at a slower rate.

The report, ‘The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates’, warns that the concentration of production in the hands of a few producers with a far larger share of the global market has ramifications for global energy security.

“… absent further investment in upstream supply, oil production from existing fields would become more concentrated among the Opec member countries and Russia,” the report says. Under natural decline rates, their share of global oil production would rise from 43% today to 53% in 2035 and more than 65% in 2050, a level not seen in the history of oil markets. (CONTINUED - 1324 WORDS)