As summer draws to a close, the oil market is turning its attention to the final quarter of the year. As of 1 September, Opec+ will have completed the unwinding of its voluntary production cuts, Middle East oil burn will be on its seasonal downswing and OECD demand will be softening. This confluence of bearish factors has led to a market consensus forming around a supply glut emerging in the final months of the year.
Of the leading forecasters, Opec is the main outlier, projecting strong demand growth through the remainder of 2025 driving full year growth of 1.29mn b/d (see charts). In contrast to this, the IEA forecasts demand growing by just 680,000 b/d for the year as a whole. While the IEA is one of the more bearish forecasters, its position is closer to the consensus view. In a 21 August note, Morgan Stanley says it estimates the industry consensus at around 850,000 b/d. (CONTINUED - 1041 WORDS)
