As the Middle East conflict approaches the one-month mark, it has become clear that there will be no return to the status quo however the war ends. Either the US and Israel will succeed in degrading Iran’s military capabilities, or Tehran emerges with a strategic victory, having demonstrated an ability to withstand devastating airstrikes and still control flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran moved early in the conflict to close the strait to non-Iranian vessels, before later allowing selected foreign ships to transit. That shift raises serious concerns among regional states that such control could become embedded in the post-conflict order. (CONTINUED - 1076 WORDS)