Iran’s Oil Export Prognosis: Is The Market Too Blasé?

MEES runs the rule on Iranian exports in the age of the waiver.

The US last week granted more-generous-than-expected ‘Significant Reduction Exemptions’, otherwise known as ‘waivers’ to eight buyers of Iranian crude and condensate. Oil markets subsequently breathed a sigh of relief with Brent crude losing $10/B since the start of November.

Based on expectations of continued substantial, albeit reduced, exports of Iranian crude and condensate, analysts project a sizeable surplus of crude on global markets through end 2019 ( MEES, 16 November ).

But, just as the seemingly-generous waiver announcement was no-doubt influenced by a spiking of pump prices ahead of the 6 November US midterm elections, in turn the fall in crude prices since, if sustained, could well lead to enforcement tighter than that currently expected. (CONTINUED - 1939 WORDS)


table Imports Of Iranian Crude & Condensate ('000 B/D)