The breakout of the Israel-Iran conflict has increased concerns over the security of supply of oil and gas from the Middle East, especially should the US ultimately enter the war. Israel has so far refrained from targeting Iranian oil production and export facilities, and Iran has not sought to pressure Israel’s Western allies through disrupting energy flows from the region. However, the risk of escalation and ongoing GPS interference has already led some shipping firms to reduce their exposure to the Gulf (MEES, 20 June).
Analysts still see the risk of Iran seeking to close the Strait of Hormuz as low, but the risk is undoubtedly significantly higher than at any point in recent years. FGE’s Fereidun Fesharaki notes that “Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, but this would inevitably bring the US, UK, and France into the conflict. The world simply cannot allow a sustained closure. By bringing key powers into the war, Iran would lose big for no gain.” Threatening such a closure gives Iran strategic leverage. Acting on it could bring about the government’s destruction. (CONTINUED - 1697 WORDS)
