Market Volatility Complicates Outlook As Opec Ponders Renewed Cuts

One year ago, UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei warned at the annual Adipec conference of the threat posed by oil price volatility. Price gains over the subsequent 12 months have eased concerns somewhat, but the past month shows that market volatility remains and if anything may increase further in 2019.

Growing expectations of the emergence of a supply glut in early 2019 amid an economic slowdown and surging non-Opec supply have contributed to Brent crude losing $20/B since 3 October from $86.29/B to barely $67/B as MEES went to press. At last year’s Adipec, Mr Mazrouei said that too much price fluctuation within one year “is not healthy for producers, and it is definitely not healthy for consumers” ( MEES, 17 November 2017 ). If Brent’s $22.30/B price range in 2017 was bad, this year’s $23.70/B is worse still. (CONTINUED - 919 WORDS)

DATA INSIDE THIS ARTICLE

table IEA Supply & Demand Forecasts, November 2018 (Mn B/D)
table Opec Supply & Demand Forecasts, November 2018 (Mn B/D)