Adnoc released its monthly Murban Crude Oil Availability Forecast on 27 March, its first such forecast since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on 28 February. The conflict has upended normal operations across the region, and in the UAE Adnoc has had to slash offshore production while seeking to maximize production of its Murban crude oil that can be exported from Fujairah, outside the Strait of Hormuz. Although Fujairah has come under heavy attack since the start of the conflict, Murban exports continue.
In its latest forecast, Adnoc announced that planned maintenance at onshore fields has been deferred from May to September. At a time when maximizing Murban production and exports is a strategic imperative, the move is understandable. Even were the conflict to end tomorrow, it is unlikely that Adnoc’s offshore fields would be back at full capacity for all of May, necessitating the need to maximize Murban output that month. As a result of the revision, Murban availability for May has been increased from 1.46mn b/d to 1.61mn b/d, with a comparable drop announced for September. (CONTINUED - 180 WORDS)