Israeli military strikes against Iran’s nuclear program have long been held up as a worst-case scenario for geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and on 13 June that scenario materialized as Israeli military jets struck the Natanz uranium enrichment facility among other sites across the country. Reports indicate Iranian nuclear scientists were targeted as well. The extent of the strikes and of Iran’s initial response was still unfolding as MEES went to press, with Iranian drones en route to Israel.

Iran’s response to the attacks will be a key inflection point for the region. Iran’s initial retaliatory strikes have been limited to Israel, with no targeting of US-allies in the region. GCC states have invested considerable political capital in de-escalating their relationships with Iran in recent years, and Iran’s leadership has likewise invested in building relationships with their Arab counterparts. (CONTINUED - 1085 WORDS)