*Top South American crude producer Brazil has been flagged by the IEA as an expected key source of non-Opec production gains for each of the past few years. Annual gains for 2019 (200,000 b/d) and 2020 (150,000 b/d) were substantial, albeit well below forecast. But the country has flattered to deceive since with output gains from new deepwater ‘pre-salt’ projects no more than making up for declining legacy production elsewhere.
*The IEA began 2022 predicting 150,000 b/d growth (MEES, 4 February). This now looks unlikely. Latest output data shows production grew by an average of just 60,000 b/d year-on-year to 2.94mn b/d for 1H 2022 with June’s 2.83mn b/d the lowest figure so far this year (see charts). (CONTINUED - 280 WORDS)