Will US Growth Stall At $45-50/B?

$45-50/B oil prices may be low enough to halt the US shale ramp-up. Would Opec settle for this?

The EIA’s June Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released this week, shows US output rising strongly. But output for last month is revised down. Whilst May output of 9.208mn b/d is up by a bumper 106,000 b/d on April, this is partly because the latter has been revised down by 40,000 b/d.

Strong output growth is still projected for the remainder of 2017 and beyond. The EIA, taking into account the recent surge in investment and drilling (see p8), has hiked its output forecasts for the second half of 2017 and first half of 2018 by an average of 100,000 b/d. Output is slated to top the April 2015 peak of 9.63mn b/d in November and hit 10mn b/d in March 2018, a level only ever before topped briefly in 1970 (see chart, p24). (CONTINUED - 1388 WORDS)