Odds Are Stacked Against Libya’s Oil Revival

A deepening political divide, the spectre of civil war, and continued strikes threaten to cut short Libya’s production surge.

Libya’s oil sector continues to defy the country’s political divide, but the obstacles to a sustained recovery are coming increasingly into focus.

Crude output rose to 810,000 b/d on 10 September, according to state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), reaching the halfway mark as production climbs further towards the 1.6mn b/d pumped prior to the 2011 revolution that toppled Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi and sent the sector into tailspin.

The recovery is remarkable given that Libya is verging on civil war, with the government having been chased out of the capital Tripoli by rebellious militia unwilling to accept the marginalization of the Islamist faction in a recent parliamentary election. Earlier in the year, output had stood at just 150,000 b/d. (CONTINUED - 1806 WORDS)