Shale Revolution, Slowing Demand Growth Cut Into Call On OPEC

A combination of surging non-OPEC supply and weaker oil demand growth has prompted OPEC into a radical reassessment of prospects for global demand for OPEC crude. OPEC’s annual World Oil Outlook 2012 (WOO), published on 8 November, projects the 2035 Call on OPEC at 34.9mn b/d under its Reference Scenario, down some 4.4mn b/d from last year’s report.

As in past editions, the WOO acknowledges major uncertainties surrounding the evolution of global oil demand growth. And as in the past, OPEC presents a Low and a High Growth Scenario alongside its Reference case, which is predicated on no change to existing energy policies. Uncertainties over the impact of North America’s shale oil and gas revolution has prompted this WOO to replace last year’s alternative energy policy scenario, with a Liquids Supply Surge (LSS) scenario, based on higher than expected development of non-OPEC supply – the 2020 non-OPEC supply under the LSS is 64.6mn b/d compared to a Reference scenario of 58.6mn b/d. (CONTINUED - 1357 WORDS)

DATA INSIDE THIS ARTICLE

table Oil Demand In OPEC’s Reference Case (MN B/D)