The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the Middle East conflict has sparked debate over how quickly oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might return to normal levels. Much will depend on risk appetite from ship owners and insurance providers, the need to remove mines, and how the agreement itself holds up, but what is clear is that volumes were increasingly leaking out through the strait in the weeks leading up to the 14 June MoU announcement, providing a floor from which to build on.
The re-opening of the strait remains the main logistical hurdle to bringing shut-in oil fields back online, and normalizing the flow of tankers will be a lengthy process. The restart will be a time-consuming process and may not progress linearly, with a return to pre-war levels potentially not achieved until next year. (CONTINUED - 1094 WORDS)
