Historic Opec Output Decline On Hormuz Closure

10 Apr 2026 Issue: 69 / 15 By: Yesar Al-Maleki

Opec production fell by a historic 7.5mn b/d in March and is set to drop further in April. The scale of the supply shock in the Gulf exposed the lack of spare capacity outside the region, as Opec producers elsewhere struggle to keep output flat, let alone manage increases to capitalize on high prices.

Opec’s monthly crude oil production fell by a massive 7.50mn b/d in March, the largest decline in its history. The group’s largest producers were forced to implement large-scale shut-ins after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to most non-Iranian shipping after the start of US-Israeli strikes on 28 February. The scale of production losses has exceeded by far that of any previous disruption, including the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1991 Gulf War (MEES, 10 April).

Production averaged 21.90mn b/d in March, the lowest monthly average since June 2020, when it fell to 21.03mn b/d at the height of Covid-era cuts. With reductions deepening through the month, output will be even lower. Despite the 7 April ceasefire announcement, a near-term rebound appears unlikely (MEES, 10 April) and production is expected to decline further this month. (CONTINUED - 963 WORDS)