The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq risks undermining Kurdish autonomy, with fears that factions in Baghdad could push to extend federal control over the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Washington has mediated between Baghdad and Erbil, facilitated security cooperation and helped broker political and economic agreements.

In the oil sector, Washington helped broker last year’s tripartite agreement between the two governments and IOCs to resume oil exports through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) after a suspension of more than two years (MEES, 26 September 2025). It also mediated an agreement to resume exports of federal crude through the Kurdistan Pipeline earlier this year, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz brought Iraq’s oil exports to a near-halt (MEES, 20 March). (CONTINUED - 1236 WORDS)