Opec+ In 2025: Navigating A Year Of Turbulence And Growth

9 Jan 2026 Issue: 69 / 2 By: Yesar Al-Maleki

Opec+ achieved sizeable production gains in 2025, having navigated a year marked by uncertainty and geopolitical upheaval. Entering 2026, many of the same challenges remain; there is a dominant narrative of oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty is abundant. For Opec+, a key priority this year will be implementing its new capacity assessment mechanism.

The Opec+ producer alliance defied expectations in 2025, not merely by sticking to plans to unwind production cuts but significantly accelerating the process. It will be hoping to repeat the trick this year, unwinding the remaining cuts in time to implement a new quota mechanism from January 2027.

Turning to the smaller Opec group, production increased to a six-year high of 27.74mn b/d, due to the easing of production cuts and continued recovery from members exempt from cuts (see table). Since the last production peak in 2022, Libya and Iran – both exempt from cuts – and the UAE, which has secured itself a higher baseline from which cuts are made, have increased production by a combined 1.12mn b/d. (CONTINUED - 2140 WORDS)