The additional 920,000 b/d of output that Opec could have produced but didn’t in March would have gone a long way towards calming markets roiled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, the ever-growing shortfall is fueling concerns over spare capacity.

The shortfall was hardly a surprise. The Opec+ alliance, which includes Opec and ten non-Opec countries led by Russia, has consistently undershot its own plans to raise output. That plan has called for rises of 400,000 b/d each month since August 2021, with Opec’s share of this at 254,000 b/d. (CONTINUED - 1062 WORDS)