Russia and Turkey were on the verge of a diplomatic coup on 13 January as they hosted the two rival leaders of Libya at a Moscow conference that would cement a ceasefire in Tripoli and pave the way for a political settlement (MEES, 29 November 2019). It wasn’t to be. While the head of the Tripoli-based, internationally recognized government Fayez al-Sarraj signed the ceasefire deal, eastern-based general Khalifa Haftar refused at the last minute and left Moscow. The 12 January truce is holding, for now.

All eyes are now on the long-delayed Berlin conference on 19 January which will bring together the warring Libyan sides and their respective backers. There is a real possibility that a roadmap to peace will emerge from Berlin, but the real question is whether on-paper commitments translate into results. (CONTINUED - 130 WORDS)