Following a year in which Iraqi Kurdistan added some 75,000 b/d in oil production (MEES, 8 November), the KRG can likely count on another 40,000 b/d in 2020, according to MEES estimates (see chart). This would push output back above 500,000 b/d for the first time since the KRG lost a swathe of territory around Kirkuk to the federal government in 2017.

The additional volumes would appear to be critical to the semi-autonomous government, but Baghdad seems to believe that a revenue sharing agreement would see the KRG limit output at 450,000 b/d – below current levels (MEES, 6 December). Would further gains be a dealbreaker, or would the federal government look the other way? (CONTINUED - 858 WORDS)