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Algeria has run up cumulative budget deficits of over $100bn since 2009, with deficits recorded even in 2011-14 when oil prices were over $100/B.
They have ballooned since as oil prices tanked (see charts 1 &2). 2017 was the closest Algeria has got to balancing the budget in recent years, with a deficit of ‘only’ $10.8bn (8.8% of GDP). But austerity was reversed in the 2018 budget as Algeria embarked on plans to stimulate the economy through counter-cyclical spending funded by the central bank printing money ( MEES, 13 October 2017 ).
Actual spending for 2018 appears to have undershot that in the budget. Coupled with oil prices which rose to average $71/B for Algeria’s Saharan Blend for 2018, a four-year high, MEES estimates that Algeria posted a deficit of around $12bn for 2018, well below the $17bn budget figure, though up on 2017. (CONTINUED - 1288 WORDS)
DATA INSIDE THIS ARTICLE
|chart||Algeria Recorded Deficits Even In 2011-13 When Oil Prices Were Over $100/B As Spending Mushroomed To Head Off 'Arab Spring' Contagion; Deficits Ballooned As Oil Prices Slumped From 2014|
|chart||Breakeven Vs Actual Oil* Prices ($/B): Even Based On Optimistic 2019 Budget Assumptions Algeria Will Need $88/B To Balance The Books; For 2018 It Would've Needed $104/B|
|table||Algeria: 2019 Budget & 2013-2018 Finances|
|chart||Algeria's Foreign Currency Reserves Fall To 12-Year Low Of $82bn At End-Nov As Imf Forecasts Further Slump ($Bn, End Period)|