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Should the latest downward revisions to the EIA's US crude output projections play out, or, indeed, intensify over the coming months, this will have a major impact on the global crude supply/demand balance over the coming months. Global oil markets currently appear well balanced, leading Saudi Arabia and other Opec members to cut back on planned output increases in July ( MEES, 10 August ). But this could rapidly change if US production underperforms expectations and Iran output nosedives in the face of a ramp-up in US sanctions ( MEES, 10 August ).
The EIA’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released 7 August, forecasts average 2018 crude output of 10.68mn b/d with 11.70mn b/d for 2019. These figures are down 110,000 b/d and 90,000 b/d respectively from month-ago EIA forecasts ( MEES, 13 July ). But, even with these downward revisions, this and next year’s output are set to smash the previous annual record of 9.6mn b/d set in 1970.
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