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Opec’s projections for global oil demand to 2040 contained in the organization’s freshly-released World Oil Outlook (WOO) themselves highlight how Opec members’ divisions make the secretariat’s projections almost bound to be retroactive, rather than proactive.
The WOO numbers almost exactly follow those produced by the IEA a year earlier (see graph). As analysts at this week’s Chatham House MENA Energy conference in London noted, they appear to take little if any note of the landmark climate deal in Paris weeks earlier and its likely effect on global energy demand.
Indeed, WOO’s focus seems to be on developing world concerns: “During this period, the most important source of oil demand increases will be in developing countries where populations continue to grow and many are expected to move out of poverty.”
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