Qatar Stares Deficit In The Face

Qatar’s Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics has cut its real GDP growth forecast to 7.3% in 2015 and 6.6% in 2016 due to lower oil prices, it said in its latest Qatar Economic Outlook (QEO) 2015-17 released earlier this month. This compares with previous forecasts in December 2014 of 7.7% and 7.5% respectively. The latest forecasts are broadly in line with the IMF’s latest forecasts of 7.1% for 2015 and 6.5% for 2016 contained in the latest update to the fund’s MENA Regional Economic Outlook, released last month.

If spending is kept at currently-planned levels then in light of reduced oil and gas revenue, Qatar could post a fiscal deficit of 4.9% and 3.7% of nominal GDP in 2016 and 2017 respectively if lower oil prices persist, it added. For 2015 the latest QEO predicts a fiscal surplus of 1.4%, well down on the 8.7% surplus forecast in the previous QEO Update released in December 2014, which forecast a 4.7% surplus for 2016. “The margin of uncertainty around these estimates is large” given that they are dependent on oil price fluctuations, the latest QEO notes.


DON'T HAVE AN ACCOUNT?


NEED TO UPGRADE YOUR CURRENT SUBSCRIPTION?

By upgrading your Print or Digital subscription you will gain access to the MEES Archives Database with past articles and data dating back from 1984.

UPGRADE