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Government promises of an imminent upturn in oil production appear wildly overoptimistic as South Sudan’s peace process continues to progress only haltingly. There has been no palpable let-up in the fighting, with progress just about sufficient to prevent the process from collapsing completely.
Oil production in South Sudan in 2015 has averaged about 148,000 b/d, according to figures from the Ministry of Petroleum, Mining and Industries, down from about 220,000 b/d before the outbreak of civil war in December 2013, and more than 400,000 b/d prior to South Sudan’s independence in July 2011.
Deliveries of oil to Sudan to make up for arrears in payments for the use of the country’s export infrastructure have eroded the South Sudan government’s production share to little more than a quarter, down from 60% in January. Under a three and a half year agreement signed in March 2013, South Sudan is paying Khartoum $24.1/B to export Dar Blend crude, the only type currently in production.
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