South Sudan Coffers Empty Amid Crippling Crude ‘Diversions’ To Khartoum

South Sudan has diverted crude worth $1.6bn to Sudan in the past three years to pay off arrears in transit and compensation levies. Despite claims to the contrary there appears to be no end in sight to such transfers.

More than four years into a civil war that seems as impervious to resolution as ever, South Sudan’s president admits that Juba’s central bank is “empty.” Notwithstanding the cost of the war effort, MEES analysis of oil marketing data over the past three and half years shows that South Sudan’s net earnings from sales of its own crude have dwindled to virtually nothing as the newly-independent country struggles to clear arrears with its new neighbor to the north (see charts).

South Sudan has received just 15% of the $3.62bn in gross export revenue for its crude since the start of 2017. Some $1.97bn has gone to the foreign partners (largely government-owned firms in China, India and Malaysia) which produce the country’s crude, whilst $1.09bn has been ‘diverted’ directly to Sudan, leaving South Sudan with a mere $552mn. (CONTINUED - 2334 WORDS)


chart South Sudan Crude Output Has Averaged 120,000 B/D Over The Past Year. A Planned 2Q18 Hike May Prove Optimistic. But, With Prices For Dar Blend Crude Up 37% Over The Past Year, Gross Export Revenues Are At A 3-Year high
chart Crippling Oil ‘Diversions’ To Sudan Mean Net Revenues Have Been Just A Fraction Of The Gross Figure. Add In Contractual Transit And ‘Compensation’ Payments* And Revenues Would Actually Be Negative ($Mn)...
chart ... But Even Presuming Non-Payment Of Transit And ‘Compensation’ Fees, Juba Has Received Just 10% Of Gross Export Earnings In Two Of The Last Three Quarters (% Of Gross Earnings)
chart Crude ‘Diversions’ Since 2Q 2015 Have Lagged Even Ongoing Dues ($MN)