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Ahead of the late November OPEC meeting in Vienna, Libya’s output is the biggest ‘wild card.’
Rather improbably, given that the country has two governments and it is unclear who controls the country’s oil industry, Libya’s crude output rebound of recent months continues.
Output has been remarkably steady at 800,000-900,000 b/d in October, running towards the top end of this range late in the month. This is up by a whopping 600,000 b/d on levels seen for March-June this year (see graph). Alongside the continued ramp up in US output, this unlikely hike in Libyan output is in no small part a factor behind oil prices falling by 25% over the same period.
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