Production from the Opec+ Group of Eight (G8) countries increased by just 17,000 b/d last month according to the Secondary Sources aggregate, just 12% of the agreed 137,000 b/d quota increase. A number of G8 members are unable to continue raising production in line with quota increases due to capacity constraints, while others are compensating for previous overproduction. In this instance, the main driver was a 154,000 b/d drop from Kazakhstan due to field maintenance.
As a result, combined G8 output of 32.86mn b/d was 160,000 b/d below the cumulative quota, the highest such figure since producers began unwinding the voluntary cuts in April (see chart 1). Kazakhstan output may rebound this month, as local media reported that the maintenance was completed on 24 October, but there are substantial doubts over the ability of other G8 producers to increase output. US sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil could hold back Russian output, while Iraq is also struggling with the repercussions from the sanctions as Lukoil is a key player in its upstream (MEES, 14 November). (CONTINUED - 775 WORDS)
