Approaching the first anniversary of Russia’s 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, “global oil markets are trading in relative calm,” says the IEA. While 2022 was a year of unprecedented market volatility, the dominant phrase of the opening weeks of 2023 has been that “oil prices are rangebound.” So far, Brent has struggled to break out of an $80-85/B range as market participants warily eye supply dynamics in Russia and demand dynamics in China.
“World oil supply looks set to exceed demand through the first half of 2023,” notes the IEA in its February Oil Market Report (OMR). But the agency is swift to warn against torpor, saying “the balance could quickly shift to deficit as demand recovers and some Russian output is shut in.” (CONTINUED - 948 WORDS)
