When Opec+ gathers in Vienna for its next ministerial meeting on 26 November, the alliance will be faced with more demand-side uncertainty than it would have wished. Prices have weakened considerably in recent weeks due to a combination of strong supply gains from outside the grouping and gathering economic uncertainty, dealing a blow to any hopes of easing output cuts.

The group’s formal and voluntary cuts run until end-2024, but Saudi Arabia’s additional 1mn b/d voluntary cuts and accompanying 300,000 b/d export cuts from Russia are due to expire at the end of this year. However, with global demand seasonally weakening in Q1, most observers reckon an imminent return of these barrels would flip the market into a surplus of as much as 1mn b/d through the first half of 2024. (CONTINUED - 775 WORDS)