In less than three weeks’ time, the European embargo on Russian crude oil imports comes into force, marking the biggest supply disruption since the earliest days of the Ukraine conflict. There is little clarity over the scale of the impact on global supply, but Russian output could drop by more than 1mn b/d between this quarter and 1Q 2023.

The latest assessments on Russian crude oil dynamics range from an 850,000 b/d drop in Q1 by Opec’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) to a much larger 1.35mn b/d by the US EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), with the IEA’s Oil Market Report (OMR) splitting the difference on 1.07mn b/d (see chart). (CONTINUED - 835 WORDS)