For any oil market participants hoping for a stable recovery in global oil demand this year amid an accelerating vaccine rollout, recent developments in India (MEES, 14 May) serve as a timely reminder that the path to a post-Covid world remains treacherous. Throw the prospect of returning Iranian barrels into the mix and you have considerable uncertainty on both sides of the supply-demand equation.

Yet oil markets have been relatively sanguine in recent weeks, with Brent even testing $70/B at times. Prices did tumble somewhat on 13 May, with Brent losing $2.27/B to settle at $67.05/B, but overall, the market has appeared optimistic. (CONTINUED - 662 WORDS)