Saudi Arabia is confident that it has turned the fiscal corner and now forecasts a budget surplus for 2022. As recently as September it was expecting to post a $13.9bn deficit next year (MEES, 1 October).

This will be the first budget surplus that Saudi Arabia has posted since 2013, before oil prices began to tumble in the second half of 2014 (see chart 1). Since then, the kingdom has notched up eight consecutive deficits for a cumulative $460bn, if the kingdom’s initial estimates for this year are accurate. (CONTINUED - 1116 WORDS)