*Latest provisional US crude output data shows production rose to 11.22mn b/d for September, the first time above 11mn b/d since April and some 1.2mn b/d up on May’s nadir of 10.02mn b/d.
*November is forecast somewhat higher still at 11.28mn b/d, but only because an expected rebound in offshore Gulf of Mexico output with the end of the hurricane season is slated to more than make up for lower onshore production. Indeed, the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) has onshore US output having peaked at 9.07mn b/d in August. September was some 91,000 b/d lower at 8.98mn b/d, with further falls averaging 70,000 b/d a month forecast for the last three months of 2020. Output is slated to stabilize in mid-2021 before trending higher in the second half of the year. But even by the end of 2021 the EIA reckons output will remain below Q3 2020 levels (see chart and table for full data). (CONTINUED - 1074 WORDS)