The outlook for near-term oil market dynamics is growing increasingly murky as coronavirus restrictions are tightened in European countries just as additional oil supplies hit the market. As the IEA says in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), “truly, those wishing to bring about a tighter oil market are looking at a moving target.”

The good news is that both the IEA and Opec point to substantial 20mn barrel declines in OECD inventories in August. The IEA says that “implied global stocks fell by 2.3mn b/d in 3Q 20 and are projected to fall by 4.1mn b/d in 4Q 20.” Opec’s latest report however has an implied Q3 stockdraw of just 610,000 b/d and its figures indicate a much less bullish 2.8mn b/d Q4 draw. (CONTINUED - 908 WORDS)