Opec Crude Risks Being Squeezed From The Market

Demand for Opec crude oil may fall below 30mn b/d by the end of the year as the group risks being squeezed out of the market by production surges elsewhere. The IEA and Opec have again revised down their expectations for the ‘Call on Opec’ in their latest monthly reports released this week, and indeed Opec’s report is notably the more pessimistic of the two regarding the immediate outlook for the group.

Remarkably, despite both reports posting expectations of a second consecutive substantial fall in demand for Opec barrels in 2019, the group is currently producing considerably below even this level. Opec projects the 2019 call at 30.30mn b/d, while the IEA has it slightly higher at 30.58mn b/d. Meanwhile, the Opec secondary sources aggregate places the group’s March output at 30.02mn b/d, some 300,000-500,000 b/d lower than these. (CONTINUED - 837 WORDS)

DATA INSIDE THIS ARTICLE

table IEA Supply & Demand Forecasts, April 2019 (Mn B/D)
table OPEC Supply & Demand Forecasts, April 2019 (Mn B/D)
chart After A Supply Glut In H2 2018, The Market Is Set To Be In Deficit For Mid-2019 (Implied Stock Builds, Mn Bbl)